Rational determination on bovine TB from Wales - speculative vaccination from DEFRA

The best that can be hoped for from the DEFRA strategy is that it will do no harm and not make matters worse. Whereas we know that BCG may be protective in naive badgers we have no idea what may happen in chronically infected animals. Rather than damp down infection as is being suggested it is equally probable that it may light up chronic infections to become overt disease with the shedding of even more infectious bacilli into the environment. And the likelihood of vaccination being effective in the face of massive challenge from naturally infected badgers in the field has to be highly speculative

And why one might ask is perturbation, which was the opt-out excuse for rational action put forward by the Independent Scientific Group in their report of June 2007, now suddenly no longer a problem? Does DEFRA suppose catching up badgers, vaccinating them and then releasing them will be any less of a perturbation than that experienced during the Randomised Badger Culling Trials? And do they really suppose they will catch enough badgers and achieve the 80% or more cover that would be necessary to achieve meaningful protection, even assuming the vaccine to be effective?

The DEFRA vaccination strategy has not been fully researched scientifically and for the reasons outlined above is unlikely to bring practical benefit. It could even exacerbate a rapidly deteriorating situation. One is forced therefore to the conclusion that, like the nine year long RBCTs, this latest speculative move is designed simply to buy the Government 5 more years when they can pretend they are doing something to stem this wretched disease that is out of control in large parts of the country. The attached figure below illustrates graphically how this Government has allowed the problem to escalate since they took office in 1997.